Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, May 21th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again, erasing another round of afternoon gains. Stocks are showing losses of 291 points in the Dow and 31 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 10/32 (4.52%), which should cause an increase of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point in rates if compared to Tuesday’s early pricing. Some lenders may have improved pricing midday yesterday as bonds improved from early morning levels. If you did get an intraday improvement, you likely will see a larger increase this morning than those who did not get a revision.

10/32


Bonds


30 yr - 4.52%

291


Dow


42,385

31


NASDAQ


19,111

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Unknown


Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Today’s 20-year Treasury Bond auction is the only listed event that may influence mortgage rates. It normally isn’t highly watched with experts traditionally focusing on the 10-year and 30-year security sales. However, with so little scheduled this week after Moody’s downgrade last Friday and the pieces of the proposed budget legislation coming to light that may require more debt to be sold in the future, just how interested investors are in today’s auction could have a stronger impact on the overall bond market than it usually does. A strong demand from investors should lead to afternoon strength in bonds and possibly an intraday improvement to mortgage rates. On the other hand, a lackluster interest would be a warning that the bond market may have some big hurdles in the coming weeks and months. Results will be announced at 1:00 PM ET, meaning any reaction should come during early afternoon trading.

Medium


Unknown


Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

There are two pieces of relevant economic data set for release tomorrow morning. First will be last week’s unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show 231,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made last week, up slightly from the previous week’s 229,000 initial filings. Rising claims are a sign of a weakening employment sector. Therefore, a larger than expected number would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Medium


Unknown


Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

April’s Existing Home Sales report is set for release at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. The National Association of Realtors is expected to say home resales rose modestly last month. A strengthening housing sector makes broader economic growth more likely, making bonds less attractive to investors. That said, it will take a wide variance from forecasts for this data to cause a noticeable move in mortgage rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


American Mortgage Services

171 Wesley Reed Drive
Atoka, TN 38004